Outcome hedging for businesses

If it can happen,
you can hedge it.

hedgeOS helps businesses unlock new revenue with prediction markets — and hedge the risks insurance was never built for.

In the news
Wall Street has hedged its risks for a century. Now Main Street can too.
When a Manhattan bar hedged its “free drinks if the Knicks win” promotion this month, the story ran everywhere — because every business owner instantly got it.
Case in point

It already works. Here’s the receipt.

This month, a Manhattan bar made national news by hedging its NBA Finals promotion — and came out ahead in both outcomes. Flip the outcome, then click through two more plays we could run for you.

Why hedgeOS

What hedgeOS does for your business.

01 · Grow

Promotions that pack the house

“Free round if they win.” “Tacos on us if Mexico takes the Cup.” The offers customers actually talk about — the kind that fill your bar, earn local press, and make your place the most exciting room in town. You get the upside; we cap the downside.

02 · Protect

Cover what insurance won’t

A rainy Saturday that wipes out your food truck’s best day. A warm winter at the ski hill. A heat wave that empties your patio. These are real, recurring risks with no insurance product behind them — and they can now be hedged at a clear, quoted price.

03 · Save

The best price, found for you

We compare pricing across markets, size the position correctly, and structure the hedge for the most efficient cost available — then show you one fixed number before anything is committed. No trading screens, no jargon, no surprises.

How it works

Three steps. One fixed price.

Discuss the plan

A short call to walk through the promotion you want to run or the exposure you want covered. We’ll tell you on the spot whether it’s hedgeable and what it should roughly cost.

Get the best price

We aggregate pricing across markets to find the most efficient hedge available — and show you exactly what it costs and what it pays out in each of your scenarios, before you commit.

We handle the rest

Execution, monitoring, and settlement all run behind the scenes. You launch the promotion; if the outcome hits, the payout follows automatically.

What you can do

Pick your play.

The math

More revenue. Less variance.

Hedged promotions lift your best nights. Hedges on weather and events protect your worst ones. In both cases, the cost is one fixed number you know up front.

Revenue up in every outcome
A hedged promo night vs. a typical night, net of the fixed hedge cost.
$50k $33k $17k $0 WHERE YOU’D BE WITHOUT THE PROMO $18k $34k $46k Typical night Promo · they lose Promo · they win FULL BAR OF PAYING FANS HEDGE COVERS THE FREE ROUND
Illustrative bar-night economics. The promotion draws a crowd whether the team wins or loses — and when it wins, the hedge payout covers what you give away. The cost is the same fixed number in both columns.
Volatility out, stability in
Twelve months of revenue, with and without hedges on weather and events.
HIGH LOW RAINED-OUT MONTH · PAYOUT FILLS THE DIP JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV Unhedged With hedgeOS
Illustrative. Hedge payouts arrive in exactly the months the weather or the bracket goes against you, so revenue stops swinging on things you can’t control — for a small, fixed premium in the good months.
Team

Quietly obsessive about getting the math right.

Zack Lawrence

Zack Lawrence

B.S. Mathematics & M.S. Computer Science, Stanford. Repeat founder across crypto and venture capital.
Stanford University
Luis Rios

Luis Rios

Ph.D., Stanford. B.S., UC Berkeley. Deep quantitative research applied to pricing and structuring real-world risk.
Stanford University UC Berkeley
Backing

Supported by industry leaders.

Jeff DeanCSO of Google · Head of Google AI
Fred EhrsamCo-founder, Coinbase · Founder, Paradigm
Arash FerdowsiCo-founder & CTO, Dropbox
Scott BanisterFmr. board, PayPal · Founder, IronPort
Georges HarikFirst 10 at Google · Co-founder, Haya Systems
Othman Laraki20th at Google · CEO, Color Bio
Backed by
Long JourneyVentures
50 YearsVenture fund
graphGraph Ventures
Healthspan CapitalVenture fund
General AdvanceVenture fund
F.E VentureSdn. Bhd.
Exor VenturesVenture fund
DialecticVenture fund
Get started

Your first hedge could be live this week.

Tell us the promotion you want to run or the risk you want hedged. We’ll walk you through every step personally.

Contact us

One short note when we launch a new hedge. No spam.

SAN FRANCISCO